The Quarterback Dilemma/Super Bowl Preview

The sun is setting on the 2021 NFL season as the Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Rams players practice for the most important game of their careers. In just nine days, one team will set itself apart from thirty-one other organizations as the undisputed king of American Football.

 

How have these two teams accomplished what the rest of the league could not?

 

When a player as young as Joe Burrow (25, NFL sophomore), carries his team to a Super Bowl this early in his career, it’s easy to assume that he will become a postseason fixture. The truth is that unless you’re Tom Brady, Joe Montana, Terry Bradshaw, or Troy Aikman, you may only get one or two shots. This can be due to injury, or a team spending their entire financial future on the quarterback and never being able to build a team around them. The latter is more common:

 

Russell Wilson: Drafted by the Seattle Seahawks in 2012, won the Super Bowl in 2013 over Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos. The next year, he led his team to a second straight Championship, but threw a game-losing interception on the Patriots goal line. Across both of these Super Bowl seasons, Wilson made a total of $1.2 million. The following offseason, they paid the young star over $31 million. They have not returned to the Super Bowl since. Wilson currently takes up just under 20% of the salary cap (maximum amount any team can pay their players to keep competition even across the league).

 

Aaron Rodgers: The Packers picked up Rodgers to be the back-up and eventual replacement for Hall of Famer Bret Favre in 2005. He did not start for three years, but when he did, his play quickly forced Favre to a new team. Rodgers led the team to a Super Bowl victory against the Steelers in his third year as a starter. He signed a monster contract a couple years later, and has not been to the Super Bowl since. Rodgers absorbed a whopping 22% of the Packers Salary cap in the 2021 season.

 

Tom Brady won seven Super Bowls in his career, more than any single franchise has won in the history of the league. Only one of those Super Bowls was won with Brady making more than 11% of the team’s salary cap. The formula for a Super Bowl exists, and has been used by Brady his entire career: Use players on cheap rookie contracts and take less money as the leader of the team. Not only are your teammates happier because they’re getting paid more, but you can more easily afford to find talent at every position.

 

Here is a list of the NFL’s highest paid quarterbacks:

• Patrick Mahomes ($450 million, $45/yr) (SB 2019)
• Josh Allen ($258 million, $43/yr)
• Dak Prescott ($160 million, $40/yr)
• Deshaun Watson ($156 million, $39/yr)
• Matt Ryan ($150 million, $30/yr)
• Russell Wilson ($140 million, $35/yr) (SB 2013)
• Jimmy Garrapolo ($137.5 million, $27.5/yr)
• Matthew Stafford ($135 million, $27/yr)
• Aaron Rodgers ($134 million, $33.5/yr) (SB 2010)
• Jared Goff ($134 million, $33.5/yr)

Considering that these ten men will make close to $2 billion over the next 5-10 years, one may be left to assume that they have, and will continue to bring home the only trophy that fans and owners care about.

 

Three men on this list have a single Super Bowl victory, the other seven have none. The combined salaries of those three quarterbacks from their Super Bowl seasons was $11 million dollars, Russell Wilson making just $500,000 of that total. The only one of these three quarterbacks to even appear in a Super Bowl after getting a big contract was Patrick Mahomes, who was embarrassed in Super Bowl LVI by Tom Brady and the Buccaneers, because the team did not assemble or maintain an offensive line for him. Brady was pressured eight times; Mahomes, a Super Bowl-record twenty-nine.

 

None of this is to say that Tom Brady is not the best football player of all time. It is just perplexing that owners continue to shell out a fifth of their 53 man team’s salary to one player and appear confused when the team doesn’t succeed. One of the owners even had the sublime gall to say, “I’d do anything known to man to get a Super bowl. That’s a fact.” just a year after making his quarterback the second-highest paid player in the league. Bonus points if you send the name of that owner. Hint, they appeared briefly in the 2021 playoffs.

 

The average salary of a Super Bowl winning quarterback over the past ten seasons is $11.5 million.

 

Now when we look at the Bengals and the Rams, we have two very different strategies that have landed both teams on America’s biggest stage. The Rams traded for and immediately paid Matthew Stafford. However, the Rams staff managed to assemble all-around talent using a currency unique to the NFL: Draft Picks.

 

While other teams will be selecting high-end college talent over the next few years, the Rams will be watching, either reveling in the Lombardi Trophy payoff of their mortgaged future, or wallowing in the knowledge that they have no young talent, and nothing to show for their wager but an NFC championship trophy. What the Rams did was risky, but with a single win, nobody would question their decision making for the rest of time.

 

The Bengals used their 2020 first round pick on Joe Burrow and their 2021 first round pick on wide receiver Jamar Chase, who was one of Burrow’s friends and most common targets when they played together at LSU. The duo even won a college national championship in 2019. Even with their remarkable college success, the press argued that the Bengals should have drafted an offensive lineman to protect Burrow, who suffered a season-ending knee injury midway through 2020. They still may appear more conservative than their NFC counterpart, but they entered the season with uncertainty at O-line, and put their trust entirely in Burrow.

 

The two vastly different roads to the Super Bowl put each team in a very different view.

 

If the Bengals lose, they will be lauded as an incredibly fun upstart that took the league by storm, but didn’t quite have the juice. The future is promising, as their two best players are still on rookie contracts.

 

If the Rams lose, however, we will be looking at a team constructed of costly all-pros (the best player at each position each year are labeled all pro) and experienced veterans like Aaron Donals, Odell Beckham Jr, Jalen Ramsey, and Matthew Stafford, that had talent at almost every position, but still couldn’t reach the summit.

 

Key Figures Involved:

Jamar Chase: It’s rare for a non-quarterback to find themselves in the KFI section, but Chase has earned the respect of prospective fans and cornerbacks (defenders designated to cover receivers) around the league. In his first year in the NFL, Chase earned more receiving yards than any rookie in NFL history. He also broke the Bengals single-season franchise record for most yards in a season. In a postseason where the Bengals have relied more heavily on defense, Chase has only scored one touchdown, but it came at the most important point in their victory over Kansas City. For some added context, feel free to watch this short clip from just moments after the Bengals game-winning field goal.

 

Joe Burrow: This man has nothing more to prove. Recovering from a serious knee injury and turning a 4-11-1 team into the AFC’s best in less than a year. As mentioned earlier, the Bengals are playing with house money, but if this kid manages to pull it off, it is one of the least-predictable turnarounds in the history of the league.

 

Evan McPherson: If we fans are lucky enough for the Super Bowl, like the past six playoff games, to come down to the games final drive, the Bengals should feel secure sending McPherson out for a field goal. At the end of the Divisional round against the Tennessee Titans, the game was tied 16-16, when a late game interception gave the Bengals a chance to score and avoid overtime. After a glorious completion from Burrow to Chase on the sideline, the Bengals prepared for what would be a 52-yard field goal. The kicker position is said to be heavily psychological. One distraction or doubt at the wrong moment can derail an attempt.

 

As the offense lined up the ball for the attempt, McPherson was taking practice kicks into the net. After his final practice swing, he turned to the a trainer and some teammates and said, “looks like we’re going to the AFC Championship game.” The rookie kicker ran onto the field and nailed it right down the middle, keeping the team’s season alive. Video of the kick here.

 

Matthew Stafford: As strange as it may seem, only six quarterbacks have ever won a Super Bowl after being traded. The entire weight of Los Angeles is on him, and he has performed with incredible confidence. Playing in Detroit for over a decade may not prepare you for Super Bowl’s, but I can think of few better places to learn to overcome adversity. With the leagues leading receiver and three former all-pro defenders, he is equipped with everything needed to bring home the Lombardi.

 

History for the Week: The Cleveland Browns

Today, the Cleveland Browns are viewed as a long-suffering franchise, never reaching the playoffs and entirely unable to find a competent starting quarterback. To find a different version of the franchise, you must look all the way back to the 1980’s.

 

The Browns were a dominant force, reaching the playoffs seven times in the decade. In a different, but more acceptable form of tragedy that they experience today, they never once reached a Super Bowl. Falling to John Elway and Broncos twice in the AFC Championship.

 

Suddenly, the window closed, and the Browns struggled for years before picking up a young defensive coordinator from the New York Giants, Bill Belichick. The first-time head coach turned the franchise around and led them back into the playoffs in 1994, where they fell to the rival Steelers.

 

Despite the loss, the team had a sense of pride and identity again, and hopes had never been higher ahead of the 95′ season. Belichick was building something in Cleveland, showing flashes of his scouting and coaching prowess that would become more evident years later in New England.

 

After an unexpected 4-4 start, owner Art Modell announced in the middle of the season that he was moving the team to Baltimore.

 

Players and coaches found out about the move from the media, not their owner, who was already off in Baltimore doing press conferences and gathering support for what would be the Baltimore Ravens. Coaches and players left stranded and confused, while still needing to play in front of a violently angry fanbase every week. 

 

The team went 1-6 following the announcement.

 

Their final home game was played on December 17th, under a hail of debris. Browns fans tore seats and rails out and threw them onto the field. One end of the field was so turbulent, that the refs made the offense turn and play in the other direction when they reached the fifty-yard-line. Some long-time season ticket holders even brought saws to remove and keep their seats, believing they should own them after years of loyalty.

 

Players, coaches, and especially the owner received death threats. They feared for their lives as they entered and exited the stadium that day.

 

Despite the chaos, the Browns defeated their rival Bengals, but the fans took no consolation. Their team was gone.

 

The ownership cleared out most of the coaching staff, including Belichick.

 

Five years later, the 95′ Browns team and coaching staff watched as the Baltimore Ravens accomplished something that the team had never done in Cleveland, defeating the New York Giants in Super Bowl XXXV.

 

A team plays in Cleveland now, but it is an entirely different team. In 1999, they returned to the league under new ownership. On September 12th, 1999 the Browns emerged from the tunnel to a sold out stadium.

 

I feel that this absolutely bizarre Sunday Night Football intro from their first game back in Cleveland perfectly sums up this story. I can neither confirm nor deny that the entire premise of the spy dramedy Chuck is based on the first minute and a half of this video.

 

The Browns lost their debut 43-0.

 

Football Quotes of the week

“Did you see the Tom Brady news? I feel like he could have played a few more years.”

 

Brady retired from football at arguably the height of this powers. The 44-year-old threw for the most yards in the league in 2021, and almost took the Bucs to a second straight NFC Title game. For someone so competitive, it has to be difficult to leave the game when you know you have more to give, but we will never watch a washed out Tom Brady play.

 

“A big legacy moment for Matthew Stafford. I wonder what his career might have looked like if he had been drafted somewhere other than Detroit.”

 

If the opponent was not one of the most lovable underdogs of the 21st century, the country would be rooting for Stafford.

 

He played like a top-five quarterback this year, and didn’t break when the pressure was high.

 

“What happened to the Chiefs in the second half?”

 

Patrick Mahomes fell apart in the second half against the Bengals. The defense held the Bengals to fourteen points in the second half, but he could not hold on to their eleven point halftime lead. A bizarre meltdown for one of the leagues premiere quarterbacks.